2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion.

Scott is author of the highly influential blogs Slate Star Codex and Astral Codex Ten. Daniel resigned from OpenAI in 2024, rejecting a non-disparagement clause and risking millions in equity to speak out about AI safety.

We discuss misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas researching AI progress.

I came in skeptical, but I learned a tremendous amount by bouncing my objections off of them.

I highly recommend checking out their new scenario planning document: https://ai-2027.com/

And Daniel's "What 2026 looks like," written in 2021: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

Read the transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF?si=6efdf727ae6c48ae

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Timestamps:
(00:00:00) - AI 2027
(00:07:45) - Forecasting 2025 and 2026
(00:15:30) - Why LLMs aren't making discoveries
(00:25:22) - Debating intelligence explosion
(00:50:34) - Can superintelligence actually transform science?
(01:17:43) - Cultural evolution vs superintelligence
(01:24:54) - Mid-2027 branch point
(01:33:19) - Race with China
(01:45:36) - Nationalization vs private anarchy
(02:04:11) - Misalignment
(02:15:41) - UBI, AI advisors, & human future
(02:23:49) - Factory farming for digital minds
(02:27:41) - Daniel leaving OpenAI
(02:36:04) - Scott's blogging advice